Could Paul Skenes Become a 30-Game Winner? A New Formula for Reviving Pitcher Wins

Revisiting the Pitcher’s Win

Since 1901, a total of 2,664 pitchers have made at least 30 career starts, and only three of them—representing one in every 888—hold a career ERA under 2.00. Among these elite arms are Ed Walsh (1.82) and Addie Joss (1.89), both Hall of Famers from the deadball era, and the current standout, Paul Skenes, who plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

However, with just 39 career starts under his belt, the odds of Skenes maintaining this prestigious status seem slim. It’s not a critique of his talent but rather a reflection of the era he competes in, which has a markedly higher average ERA of 4.04 compared to the 2.61 during Walsh and Joss’s time.

Skenes’ Impressive Season

This season, Skenes boasts a leading ERA of 1.85 in the majors and a bWAR of 4.4, ranking him first among all players in the National League. Despite playing for the struggling Pirates, where his win-loss record sits at a modest 4-6, experts are eyeing him as a top contender for the NL Cy Young Award.

But should we disregard wins altogether? Absolutely not! If we consider Skenes’ performance more deeply, his actual win-loss record could be interpreted as 11-5, placing him among the top pitchers in the league. This discrepancy highlights the evolving conversation around how we evaluate pitchers today.

The Evolution of Pitcher Evaluation

Historically, pitchers were judged primarily by their win totals. A review of the 1980 MLB preview from the Sporting News shows how little data was used to assess pitchers back then—only win totals, without any mention of ERAs or strikeout rates. While we now appreciate the complexity of pitching metrics, the significance of wins has dulled over time, especially as more decisions are being handed to relievers, with 41.3% of decisions last season going to them, compared to just 18% a century ago.

To refine how we evaluate wins, a new statistic could filter out external factors and focus solely on starting pitchers’ performances against each other. An ideal win metric would compare two starters pitching under identical conditions, thus leveling the playing field and potentially allowing for the recognition of more 20-game winners across different eras.

Redefining Winning Metrics

A proposed method to redefine pitcher wins would solely credit the starting pitcher who performed better in a game, disregarding any no-decisions. By implementing a game score system, we could assign wins and losses more accurately. For instance, Skenes’ game score record stands at 11-5, a stark contrast to his traditional record, underscoring his true value as a pitcher.

As we explore this new framework, it becomes evident that many great pitchers, including Skenes, might be unjustly overlooked in the traditional win-loss narrative. If Skenes can sustain his health and performance, we could witness a remarkable career unfold—one that might lead him to chase 20-win seasons and redefine the conversation around pitcher wins.

Context & Analysis

The changing landscape of baseball metrics makes it crucial to rethink the way we interpret pitcher wins. As we bridge traditional values with modern analytics, we open the door to a richer understanding of pitching performance that honors both historical and contemporary achievements.