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Sleepers, Busts, and Breakout Stars for 2025

Anticipating the Fantasy Football Season

As we draw nearer to the excitement of fantasy football draft season, it’s that moment again to forecast our annual picks for sleepers, busts, and breakout stars. Definitions might differ, but here’s how we categorize these players:

  • Sleeper: A player who is currently overlooked and is expected to exceed their average draft position (ADP) in 2025.
  • Bust: A well-regarded player likely to fall short of expectations based on their ADP.
  • Breakout: A player poised to achieve career-best statistics and make a significant impact in 2025.

Contributors like Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, and others have each selected a sleeper and a bust from key offensive positions, alongside one breakout candidate. Their insights and analyses on players they are most passionate about can be found below.

Note from the editor: This article will be updated throughout the preseason.

Identifying the Sleepers

Cockcroft: J.J. McCarthy hasn’t had a chance to shine yet, missing his entire rookie year due to knee surgeries. However, he’s in a prime situation to succeed, benefiting from Coach Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offensive scheme, which has averaged an impressive 17.8 fantasy points per game. With talented receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, McCarthy is set for a promising season.

Bowen: Kaleb Johnson, standing at 6-foot-1 and weighing 224 pounds, fits perfectly into Pittsburgh’s outside zone scheme. Last season at Iowa, he recorded 21 rushes over 20 yards, ranking second nationally. Even though he’ll share the ball with Jaylen Warren, his potential in a run-dominant offense could elevate him to RB2 status.

Karabell: Concerns over Travis Hunter’s snaps as a two-way player might cause some to overlook him in fantasy. However, the Jaguars seem inclined to utilize him more on offense. With Trevor Lawrence at the helm, Hunter could shine as a WR2 with an attractive cost.

Clay: Colston Loveland, a first-round pick, faces stiff competition for targets in Chicago. Yet, under the guidance of new coach Ben Johnson, he might quickly establish himself in the lineup, potentially transforming the narrative around rookie tight ends.

Players to Watch Out For: Busts

Dopp: Baker Mayfield’s ADP sits between QB6 and QB7, indicating you’re likely selecting him at his peak. With new coaching dynamics and uncertainty surrounding key receivers, opting for someone with more growth potential seems wiser.

Fulghum: James Cook could face a regression in 2025, especially with his ADP lingering around RB10 to RB12. His remarkable performance last season, scoring 18 total touchdowns, may not be replicated, especially with Josh Allen still dominating goal-line opportunities.

Yates: DJ Moore has proven himself as a fantasy asset, yet recent draft picks for the Bears might complicate his role. With other emerging talents around him, his outlook appears uncertain.

Moody: Rashee Rice is attracting attention as a top-20 WR, but he comes with significant risks. Coming off surgery and facing stiff competition, his draft position seems precarious given his lack of proven performance.

Breakout Candidates to Consider

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders: As the sixth pick in the draft, Jeanty stands out as the top fantasy prospect from this rookie class. Positioned as the main back in Las Vegas, he has the potential to become a household name.

Drake Maye, QB, Patriots: Maye has shown promise despite a rocky start. With more skilled players surrounding him this season, he could elevate his game significantly.

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: With major upgrades to the offense, Williams might be on track to make history for the Bears, aiming for impressive passing statistics and a remarkable season.

Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs: Rice’s path to consistency remains uncertain, but with the potential for a breakout this year, he could secure a top spot in the Chiefs’ offense.

Context & Analysis

As we gear up for the fantasy football season, identifying potential sleepers, busts, and breakout stars is crucial. The dynamics of NFL rosters, coaching changes, and player health can significantly influence outcomes. Staying informed and adaptable is key to drafting a winning team.

Nikodem Nowak

Nikodem Nowak is a dedicated sports enthusiast with a keen eye for statistical analysis and sports betting. His journey into the world of predictions began with a deep passion for understanding the numbers behind the game—tracking team performances, studying player form, and analyzing historical data to uncover patterns that others might miss. With years of experience in following sports results and market trends, he has developed a unique approach to betting, one that combines meticulous research with strategic thinking.

Nikodem shares in-depth analyses, expert betting tips, and the latest updates across various disciplines, from football and basketball to tennis and combat sports. His goal is to provide not just predictions, but also valuable insights that help others improve their own betting strategies. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, his content is designed to give you a deeper understanding of the factors that influence outcomes, helping you make more informed decisions.