Predictions
30 November, 2025
As the anticipation builds for fantasy football in 2025, it’s crucial to hone your skills using our Mock Draft Lobby, while also keeping an eye on Mike Clay’s updated forecasts throughout the season.
Predicting football statistics can be quite a challenge, yet history shows that it’s often easier to anticipate touchdown rebounds than one might think. From the 2011 to 2023 seasons, we observed 169 instances where a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on over 50 touches, only to achieve at least 50 touches the following season. Remarkably, 114 (67.5%) of these players scored more touchdowns in the subsequent season.
Among the 48 players who found the end zone fewer than three times in their first year, 39 (81.3%) improved their touchdown counts the following season. Notably, of the 16 players who managed one or no touchdowns, 14 (87.5%) increased their scoring in the next year. The only exceptions were slot WRs Jason Avant and Danny Amendola.
Last season, 29 WRs and TEs scored under five touchdowns on 50-plus touches. Noteworthy players who scored under three touchdowns include Jake Ferguson (0), Elijah Moore (1), Jaylen Waddle (2), Dalton Schultz (2), Chig Okonkwo (2), Hunter Henry (2), and Mike Gesicki (2).
When we analyze running backs, a similar trend is evident. There were 45 cases where a running back failed to score seven touchdowns on over 200 touches but managed to hit that mark the following season; 36 (80.0%) scored more touchdowns in their second season. Interestingly, four backs who didn’t hit four touchdowns in their initial year bounced back to score at least seven the next year.
The key takeaway is simple: NFL players who have a disappointing touchdown count often see significant improvements the following season, especially when they maintain similar playing time. This analysis will reference expected touchdowns (xTD), a statistic that condenses every carry and target into a single number reflecting a player’s scoring potential.
In summary, many players who underperformed in terms of touchdowns last season are poised to bounce back in 2025. Keep these players in mind as you prepare for your fantasy football draft!
As we approach the 2025 fantasy football season, understanding players’ scoring potential can offer a competitive edge. Tracking player performance trends and historical data is vital, and staying ahead of these insights can help managers make informed decisions.
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